WTA Finals: Sabalenka and Svitolina play for the last semifinal spot

At the WTA Finals in Indian Wells, Friday in Group 2 has only one verdict left to deliver, but it is a big one. Mirra Andreeva has already sealed first place with two wins from two matches, the latest a 6-4 6-0 rout of Aryna Sabalenka. Tonight the Belarusian takes on Elina Svitolina: the winner claims the last semifinal spot.

According to the order of play published on the site, Andreeva meets Karolina Muchova at 9pm Italian time, followed by Sabalenka against Svitolina at 10:30pm. Muchova is already out after losing to Sabalenka and Svitolina, so the first match matters for the rankings, not the draw. The second is a straight knockout.

The stakes go beyond the tournament. In the site's live rankings Andreeva has climbed to No.2 with 6,706 points, 400 more than at the start of the week, overtaking none other than Sabalenka, who sits on 6,685. In the official rankings at the start of the event the order was reversed: Sabalenka No.2 with 6,485 points, Andreeva No.3 with 6,306. For the 19-year-old Russian, No.2 would be a new career high: the site's history records her best as No.3 on 12 October 2026. Elena Rybakina remains ahead of everyone at No.1 with 8,099 points.

That is why Andreeva-Muchova is not a match to file away quickly. Another win would take Andreeva to 6,906 live points, while Sabalenka, by beating Svitolina, would reach 6,885. If both win, the Russian stays 21 points ahead. If Andreeva loses and Sabalenka wins, the order flips again tonight.

On Wednesday the match between the two had started the other way round. Sabalenka broke for 3-1 and moved ahead 4-1. From there, the WTA match report says, Andreeva won 12 points in a row to level at 4-4 and 20 of the next 23 points, closing out the first set with three consecutive aces. Then she never looked back: the last 11 games of the match and 45 of the last 55 points were hers, in 62 minutes overall.

In the second set Andreeva won every point she played behind her first serve and dropped just two points on serve. Sabalenka, according to WTA figures, finished with 23 unforced errors. It was Andreeva's second 6-0 set in a row at this edition: on Monday she had beaten Svitolina by the same score, 6-4 6-0, winning the last seven games. According to the WTA, she is the first player in the tournament's history to win a 6-0 set in each of her first two matches.

In her press conference Andreeva said she had been angry after the poor start and had put that anger to use: "But it was a good thing that I was serving, because I kind of was able to turn that anger into trying to serve faster." Asked to rate her performance, she replied: "I would give myself a good eight." Sabalenka gave her credit in front of reporters: "She definitely played great tennis."

Andreeva is making her singles debut at the Finals and is already in the last four. According to the WTA, she is the youngest semifinalist since Caroline Wozniacki in 2009 and the fifth teenager to get there since the round-robin format began in 2003, after Maria Sharapova, Ana Ivanovic, Wozniacki and Coco Gauff.

The head-to-head between Andreeva and Sabalenka now stands at 4-3 to the Belarusian in the site's records, but the Russian has won the last two. Their previous meeting was also in Indian Wells, in the 2025 WTA 1000 final, which Andreeva won from a set down, 2-6 6-4 6-3. Before that, Sabalenka had won four of their five matches; the exception was the 2024 Roland Garros quarterfinal, won by Andreeva 6-7 6-4 6-4.

Tonight the history favours Sabalenka. The site records four meetings with Svitolina, all won by the Belarusian: the 2023 Roland Garros quarterfinal (6-4 6-4), the round of 16 in Rome and Cincinnati in 2024 and the 2025 Madrid semifinal, which ended 6-3 7-5. In the WTA's complete count the record is 6-1, with five straight wins for Sabalenka and three out of three on hard courts. The most recent came in the 2026 Australian Open semifinal, 6-2 6-3.

Sabalenka comes into the match after mixed months. The site's history still has her at No.1 on 7 July 2026, and she went on to reach the US Open final, losing to Rybakina 6-4 5-7 6-2. In Asia, though, she picked up little: a third-round exit in Beijing against Nikola Bartunkova and a second-round defeat in Wuhan to Ann Li in a final-set tie-break. Her record over the last ten matches is 6-4.

In Indian Wells she started well, beating Muchova 7-6(2) 7-5 in her opener. There are points to defend too: in 2025 Sabalenka lost the Finals title match to Rybakina 6-3 7-6(0), and the site's table shows 400 points from that final dropping off with this year's edition. A win over Svitolina would lift her to 6,885 live points; the title would take her to 7,785.

Svitolina, 32, is No.6 in the rankings, her best position in the site's history, reached on 12 October 2026. The 2018 Finals champion lost her opener in Indian Wells to Andreeva, then came from behind to beat Muchova 3-6 6-2 6-2. This autumn she reached the quarterfinals in both Beijing and Wuhan, and in the summer the semifinals in Toronto. She has 5,321 live points; a win would take her to 5,521.

For Muchova, No.8 with 4,665 points, this is the last match of a season in which, according to her profile on the site, she reached the Wimbledon final and won the WTA 500 in Bad Homburg. Her only previous meeting with Andreeva was the 2024 Ningbo semifinal, which ended when the Czech retired trailing 6-2 1-0.

In the other group the verdicts came on Thursday. Coco Gauff beat Marta Kostyuk 6-4 7-5, and Jessica Pegula edged Linda Noskova 7-6(2) 4-6 7-5. Three players finished with two wins and one loss. Noskova went through in first place with 5 sets won and 2 lost, ahead of Pegula (5-3); Gauff (4-3) missed out on percentage of sets won.

The semifinals are on Saturday. Andreeva will face Pegula for the first time in her career; Noskova awaits the winner of Sabalenka-Svitolina. The recent roll of honour is varied: Iga Swiatek won in 2023, beating Pegula 6-1 6-0 in the final; Gauff in 2024, 3-6 6-4 7-6(2) over Qinwen Zheng; and Rybakina in 2025.

So far, according to the site's statistics, 8 singles matches have been played, with 2 tie-breaks, 2 matches decided in a third set and 2 sets ending 6-0, both won by Andreeva. The longest match was Gauff-Pegula, 6-4 6-7(5) 6-2, 31 games in total.

The equation for tonight is simple. Andreeva is playing to keep the live No.2 spot and reach the semifinals with three wins from three; if she also took the title, she would rise to 7,806 points. Sabalenka is playing to stay in the tournament and not give her rival room in the rankings. Svitolina, with four defeats in four in the meetings recorded by the site, has the chance to rewrite that story on the right day.