Four semifinalists, no obvious favorite and a final still to be decided. At the Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, a WTA 500 on hard court, Leylah Annie Fernandez plays Kamilla Rakhimova and Diana Shnaider faces Mia Pohankova on Saturday, October 31. Many of the most anticipated players are already out, and the tournament has taken a path of its own.
The draw started with 28 players from 19 countries. After 23 matches, four are left, representing Canada, Uzbekistan, Russia and Slovakia. So far there have been 8 tie-breaks, 8 matches decided in a third set, two sets ending 6-0 and one walkover. Those numbers describe a balanced week in which the forecasts counted for little.
Let's start with Fernandez. The Canadian is world number 21 in the live rankings with 2,079 points, 105 of them earned this week. In the round of 16 she beat Elise Mertens 6-2 7-6(8), winning a very long tie-break, after a 6-2 6-4 win over Himeno Sakatsume in round three. In the quarterfinals she was drawn against Elena Rybakina: the draw records the advance with no score to report.
Fernandez has had a good season. She won the title in Singapore, a WTA 500 worth 500 points, and reached the final in Ningbo, where she lost to Rybakina 6-2 6-2. In Wuhan, at WTA 1000 level, she went out in the round of 16, and at the US Open she stopped in round three. In her last 10 matches she has won 8 and lost 2.
Across the net will be Rakhimova, 25, number 45 in the live rankings with 1,171 points. In the quarterfinals she beat Maya Joint 7-5 5-7 6-1, after beating Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 4-6 7-6(5) in the round of 16. That match, at 33 games, is the longest of the whole tournament: Rakhimova has reached the semifinals without sparing herself.
The road has not always been easy for her. In 2025 she finished with 9 wins and 19 losses, and on the main tour between 2021 and 2025 her record is 35 wins and 60 losses, with no titles or finals. This year she reached round three at the US Open, where she lost to Aryna Sabalenka 6-3 6-4, and in Beijing. With the semifinal she has already banked 195 points.
There is also a previous meeting worth remembering. In Beijing, in the second round of the WTA 1000, Rakhimova beat Fernandez 6-2 4-6 6-3. It is only one match, but it reminds the Canadian that the Uzbek can hurt her when a match goes long. On Saturday the story starts from zero, with 195 points for the winner and a final one step away.
The second semifinal features Shnaider, number 13 in the live rankings with 2,903 points. The Russian beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the round of 16 by 6-3 5-7 6-3 and in the quarterfinals defeated Alexandra Eala 2-6 7-6(5) 6-4, turning around a match that looked lost after the first set. Number 13 is also her career-high ranking, reached on September 14.
Her season is made of many weeks spent between early rounds and late stages. She played the semifinal in Ningbo, lost to Rybakina 6-3 7-5, the quarterfinals in Wuhan and Toronto, and the semifinal in Washington. In 2024 she won four titles, in 2025 one. In her last 30 matches she has put together 21 wins and 9 losses.
Then there is Pohankova, the surprise of the tournament. The Slovak turned 18 on October 21 and is number 126 in the live rankings with 609 points, up 96 places since September 9. In Tokyo she beat Tereza Valentova 6-1 6-4, Naomi Osaka 6-3 7-5 and, in the quarterfinals, Alycia Parks 7-6(3) 6-3.
Her path is made of smaller tournaments and fast growth. In 2025 she played three matches on the main tour, winning two. This year she reached the semifinals at the WTA 125 events in Porto and Caldas da Rainha, then the round of 16 in Wuhan, where she lost to Maria Sakkari 6-1 6-4. In her last 16 matches she has won 12 and lost 4.
Against Shnaider there is no previous meeting in the site's data, and the ranking gap is 113 places. Pohankova has already shown she can handle big moments: against Parks she won the first set in a tie-break and she beat Osaka in straight sets. On paper she is not the favorite, but in Tokyo the paper has already been proved wrong several times.
A lot is at stake. In Tokyo the semifinal is worth 195 points, the final 325 and the title 500. If she wins the tournament, Fernandez reaches 2,474 points, Shnaider 3,298, Rakhimova 1,476 and Pohankova 1,004. For Pohankova in particular, winning the title would mean a jump of almost 400 points from her current 609.
The tournament also has a history to defend. In 2025 Belinda Bencic won over Linda Noskova 6-2 6-3, in 2024 Qinwen Zheng beat Sofia Kenin 7-6(5) 6-3, in 2023 Veronika Kudermetova beat Jessica Pegula 7-5 6-1 and in 2022 Liudmila Samsonova beat Zheng again 7-5 7-5. None of this year's four semifinalists appears on the recent roll of honor.
What happens now? Saturday's two semifinals decide who reaches the last act of the Japanese WTA 500. Fernandez and Shnaider have the rankings on their side, Rakhimova and Pohankova have the advantage of having nothing to lose. If the tournament continues the way it started, anything can still happen.
Test yourself
3 questions on what you have just read.
1. Who beat Fernandez in the Beijing 2026 meeting?
2. What was the score when Shnaider beat Eala in the quarterfinals?
3. How many points is the title worth in Tokyo?