Beijing: Zverev eyes a big prize without Sinner

The big story at the 2026 China Open is an absence: the defending champion is missing. Jannik Sinner, who won the title a year ago by beating Learner Tien 6-2 6-2, will not be in the field. Sky Sports and Il Sole 24 Ore, among others, reported the withdrawal, citing a right knee problem. The draw was made on 28 September; the main draw starts on Wednesday 30 September and the final is scheduled for Tuesday 6 October.

The event is an ATP 500 played on hard courts at the National Tennis Centre, with $4,089,385 in prize money and 500 points for the champion. The top seed is Alexander Zverev, who opens against Britain's Cameron Norrie. The German arrives in Beijing on a high: he won the US Open, beating Ben Shelton in the final 6-3 7-6 5-7 6-2, and after the American Slam he also beat Learner Tien at the Laver Cup, which Team Europe won.

Why does Beijing matter so much to him? The site's live ranking tells the story: Zverev is No. 2 with 9,540 points, 960 behind Sinner, who has 10,500. This year, though, the long-distance chase changes shape. Sinner drops the 500 points from his 2025 title and, if he does not play, falls to 10,000. Zverev has 90 points expiring, from last year's quarter-final, and a title in Beijing would take him to 9,950. He would still miss the top spot by just 50 points, but the gap would shrink to almost nothing.

The calculation is theoretical and comes with caveats: it only uses the live points published on the site and ignores other movements in the coming weeks. Still, it shows how the race for No. 1 has reopened. The site notes that Sinner has another 1,500 points to defend over the next six weeks, between Vienna (500) and the Paris Masters 1000 (1,000), while Zverev has 700, from 300 for last year's Vienna final and 400 for the Paris semi-final.

Zverev knows his way around Beijing. He has been a semi-finalist three times and last year went out in the quarter-finals. His last month is a calling card: in his last 10 matches he has 9 wins and a single loss, and in New York he beat Khachanov in the semi-final and Van De Zandschulp in the quarter-final. In round one he faces Norrie, a left-hander.

The main attraction of the draw, however, is Novak Djokovic. The Serb is a six-time Beijing champion and, according to the ATP, has a perfect record of 29 wins and no losses at this event. He has not played here since 2015 and is chasing a seventh title and his first trophy of 2026. He opens against Portugal's Nuno Borges; the second round could bring Juan Manuel Cerundolo or an opponent still to be decided.

Zverev and Djokovic are on the same path and could meet in the quarter-finals. Djokovic leads their head-to-head 9-5, and their last meeting was at Roland Garros 2025. It would be a quarter-final that feels like a final, with the US Open champion against the man who has never lost in Beijing.

In the other half of the draw are Felix Auger-Aliassime, the second seed, who plays Karen Khachanov, and Daniil Medvedev, the third seed, who opens against a qualifier. Medvedev knows these courts well: in 2023 he was the finalist, beaten by Sinner 7-6 7-6, and in 2025 he reached the semi-finals. A head-to-head curiosity: in ten meetings with Medvedev, Zverev trails 2-8, according to the site's player page.

Alex de Minaur, the fifth seed, opens against Argentina's Mariano Navone. Flavio Cobolli could meet him in the quarter-finals and is chasing his first qualification for the Nitto ATP Finals. For Italy, which has lost its defending champion, every round Cobolli wins counts double.

In the top quarter there is also Learner Tien, the seventh seed, who wants to repeat last year's run. In 2025 he reached the final, losing to Sinner, and earned 300 points, which are now expiring. His live ranking has him at No. 22 with 2,045 points, after climbing as high as No. 12 on 14 August. His first obstacle is Hubert Hurkacz, an opponent to be handled with care.

Tien comes off a season stretch of two halves. In Montreal he reached the semi-final, beating Tommy Paul along the way, while in Cincinnati he went out in the round of 16 against Frances Tiafoe. At the US Open he lost in the fourth round to Karen Khachanov in five sets, after getting past Jakub Mensik in another five-set battle. In his last 10 matches he has 6 wins and 4 losses.

Mensik, the eighth seed, opens against Alexander Bublik, who is always a gamble: with him, forecasts are written in pencil. The Czech reached the quarter-finals in 2025 and this season has shown he has the body to survive marathons, like the one in New York against Tien.

The tournament has a rich history. Besides Djokovic's six titles, the roll of honour lists Rafael Nadal as the other world No. 1 to win here, and the lowest-ranked champion was Nikoloz Basilashvili, No. 34, in 2018. In 2024 the final went to Carlos Alcaraz, who beat Sinner 6-7 6-4 7-6, as the site's roll of honour shows.

The overall picture is clear: without the defending champion, Beijing becomes an open tournament, with three names a step above the rest. Zverev has the ranking and the confidence of a Slam, Djokovic has history, and Auger-Aliassime and Medvedev have the talent to spoil the plans. The winner takes 500 points, but the symbolic value is higher than the rulebook says.

On the other big event of the week, Tokyo hosts the Japan Open, where Carlos Alcaraz, No. 4 with 4,560 points, defends his 2025 title and the 500 points attached to it. The site notes that the Spaniard has exactly those 500 points expiring, and he sits just 120 behind Shelton. It will be a tight week for the rankings, where every match counts.

What happens now? Qualifying is played on 28 and 29 September and the first round of the main draw starts on 30 September. Zverev opens against Norrie, Djokovic against Borges, and their possible quarter-final is not far off. Then come the semi-finals and the final on 6 October, not before 7 p.m. We will follow every round, and the live points will change from match to match.