Tokyo: Alcaraz defends his title against Michelsen

The Japan Open in Tokyo, an ATP 500 that began on Monday 28 September, now has its draw and a couple of stories to tell. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz will open against Alex Michelsen, whom he has never faced. On the other side of the draw, second seed Frances Tiafoe plays Kei Nishikori, who is contesting the last tournament of his career in Tokyo.

The draw was published by the ATP, which has Alcaraz as top seed. For the Spaniard it is a return to the court after the U.S. Open quarter-finals, where he lost to Ben Shelton in five sets: 6-7(5) 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6(7). It was a match decided by a fifth-set tie-break, after four rounds he had won without much trouble.

Alcaraz's run at Flushing Meadows had indeed been smooth: 6-4 6-4 6-4 over Roman Safiullin in the opener, then Jaime Faria in four sets, 6-3 6-4 6-1 over Yibing Wu in the third round and 6-4 6-3 6-4 over Tommy Paul in the last 16. The ATP names Paul as a possible quarter-final opponent in Tokyo, provided he gets past his opener against Alejandro Tabilo.

Michelsen is the first hurdle, and no ordinary one. The American reached his first Grand Slam quarter-final in New York, stopped only by Tiafoe in five sets (5-7 3-6 7-5 6-3 7-6). He arrives in Tokyo full of confidence and with no previous meeting to study: according to the international press it is a very tough first round for a defending champion. The winner meets Matteo Arnaldi or wild card Rei Sakamoto.

In the rankings Alcaraz is world No. 4 with 4,560 points, according to the player's page: third-placed Ben Shelton is 120 points ahead, while fifth-placed Félix Auger-Aliassime is 670 behind. In Tokyo the Spaniard has only one way to avoid losing ground: repeat his 2025 title, which is worth 500 points and drops off with the 2026 edition. Every round matters, and the stakes are clear from day one.

He played last year's final against Taylor Fritz, winning 6-4 6-4. Fritz is now the No. 3 seed according to the ATP and sits in the same half as Alcaraz: a semi-final would be a rematch of that final. Before that, though, he must beat a qualifier in round one and possibly Lorenzo Musetti in round two.

Fritz has 300 points to defend, from his 2025 final: the Californian is now world No. 13 with 2,580 points, 64 behind Rafael Jodar (12) and 205 ahead of Tommy Paul (14). At the U.S. Open he lost in the third round to Francisco Cerundolo in five sets (3-6 4-6 6-3 6-4 6-4). Tokyo has been kind to him: he won here in 2022, beating Tiafoe 7-6(3) 7-6(2) in the final, and he reached the last match again in 2025.

The other half of the draw belongs to Frances Tiafoe, world No. 8 with 3,370 points, 265 behind Flavio Cobolli (7) and 220 ahead of Arthur Fils (9). He has climbed 11 places since 7 July thanks to a solid summer: the Cincinnati final, lost to Fils 6-3 1-6 6-0, and the U.S. Open semi-final, reached after beating Daniil Medvedev in the last 16 and Michelsen in the quarters, before falling to Shelton (4-6 6-3 6-3 7-5).

Tiafoe's opener, however, is an evening of its own. Across the net will be Nishikori, 36, who received a wild card to end his career at home, in a tournament he has won twice, in 2012 and 2014. According to the ATP he reached world No. 4 and won 12 titles. For the Japanese crowd it will be an emotional night; for Tiafoe, a thankless task and one of the most delicate of his draw.

In the same section is Brandon Nakashima, the fifth seed, while Valentin Vacherot, the 2025 Shanghai winner, faces Alexander Blockx. Nakashima has 90 points to defend from last year's quarter-final, as do Aleksandar Vukic, Sebastian Korda and Holger Rune; Casper Ruud and Jenson Brooksby, semi-finalists in 2025, each have 180 to defend.

Rune's return is one of the stories of the tournament. The Dane is playing his first ATP event since tearing his Achilles tendon in October, as the ATP reports. He is now world No. 260 with 210 points, after a long absence from the tour. He reached the semi-finals in Tokyo in 2024, and last year's quarter-finals are worth 90 points to defend, with an opener against Kyrian Jacquet.

Jacquet knows how to go deep in a tournament: the Frenchman is world No. 74 with 781 points, has climbed 34 places since 9 September and reached the semi-finals in Hangzhou last week, where he lost to Andrey Rublev 7-6(0) 6-1. On the way he had beaten Aleksandar Vukic in the third round and Fabian Marozsan in the quarters, so Rune will face an opponent full of confidence.

The tournament also has a youngster to watch. Rafael Jodar is world No. 12 and, according to the ATP, ninth in the Live Race to Turin and first in the Next Gen Race. His first match is against a qualifier and, if the draw follows form, he could meet Tiafoe in the semi-finals. Tokyo is therefore also a small showcase in the battle for a place at the Nitto ATP Finals.

The list of past champions shows how open this event is. In 2025 Alcaraz won against Fritz, in 2024 Arthur Fils beat Ugo Humbert 5-7 7-6(6) 6-3 and in 2022 Fritz got past Tiafoe in two tie-breaks. The stakes are clear: 500 points for the champion, 300 for the finalist, 180 for the semi-finalists, 90 for the quarter-finalists, 45 for the last 16 and 10 for those who go out in the third round.

What happens now? Alcaraz-Michelsen and Tiafoe-Nishikori are the matches to circle on the first-round schedule. We will see whether the Spaniard can restart from the New York quarter-final and whether the Tokyo crowd can give Nishikori at least one last win. On paper, Alcaraz-Fritz in the semi-finals is the most likely path, but in 500 events predictions have a short life.